Lithuania Economy: GDP, Growth & Economic Outlook 2026

Few economies in the European Union grew as fast as Lithuania’s in Q2 2026. Real GDP was 4.1% higher than a year earlier, compared with 1.2% for the EU as a whole, and average gross pay rose by 10.1% over the same twelve months.

Below you’ll find the main figures on the Lithuanian economy, including GDP, inflation, jobs and wages, along with what they mean if you’ve been considering relocation for work.

Key takeaways

●      In 2025 Lithuania’s GDP came to €84.3 billion, the largest of the three Baltic economies.

●      Average gross earnings reached €2,628 a month in Q2 2026, and pay has been rising faster than prices.

●      With the population getting older and the workforce shrinking, employers keep looking for skilled professionals, many of them from abroad.

●      Most forecasts put 2026 GDP growth between 2.7% and 3.0%, carried mainly by household consumption and investment.

●      Fintech, business services, life sciences and engineering are hiring the most for high-skilled roles.

Lithuanian Economy at a Glance

Lithuania joined the European Union and NATO in 2004 and switched to the euro in 2015. Since joining the European Union, it has successfully transitioned, and today most of its trade is with EU partners while the World Bank lists Lithuania as a high-income country with the largest and most diversified economy in the Baltic region.

As an open economy, Lithuania’s transport and logistics role is strengthened by its strategic geographical position. Trade, transport and logistics hold as much significance as manufacturing, while finance, ICT and life sciences, although not as large, have been growing quickly in recent years. This combination has been key in keeping the economy on its upward trajectory, even in the face of the 2022 energy price shock. Exports account for about 74% of GDP.

Sources: Eurostat for 2023–2025 (GDP, GDP per capita, HICP, unemployment); European Commission Spring 2026 Economic Forecast for 2026. Data retrieved September 2026.

Sources: Eurostat for 2023–2025 (GDP, GDP per capita, HICP, unemployment); European Commission Spring 2026 Economic Forecast for 2026. Data retrieved September 2026.

How Is Lithuania’s Economy Performing?

2026 got off to a slow start, and GDP shrank slightly in Q1. Post-pandemic, real GDP growth averaged about 3% per year. Growth came back in Q2 with a 1.7% rise on the previous quarter, which took the annual rate to 4.1%, the highest since late 2024. Construction output was up 6.1% and manufacturing 3.6%.

Most of the growth comes from household consumption, reflecting strong domestic demand. Private consumption accounted for 58.8% of GDP in 2023. In Q2 2026 real wages were 3.4% higher than a year before, so families had more money to spend. Pension fund withdrawals added to that this year. Under the 2026 second-pillar reform, around 515,000 savers withdrew their full balances, a total of €2.9 billion, or about €5,600 each. That’s roughly 3.4% of 2025 GDP. The European Commission expects private consumption to rise by 4.6% and investment by 5.8% in 2026, and that trend is expected to continue to the end of the forecast period.

Higher prices are eating into some of these gains, however, with HICP inflation at 5.6% in August 2026, as energy costs rose and conflict continued in the Middle East. By contrast, non-energy goods prices are expected to increase by 1.2% in 2026, pointing to more moderate underlying price pressure.

The Bank of Lithuania’s September 2026 projections covered GDP growth for 2026 at 2.7%, the same as in June. Meanwhile, the forecast for 2027 went up from 2.0% to 2.4%.

Lithuania’s GDP and Economic Growth

In 2025 Lithuania produced €84.3 billion of GDP, or €29,170 per person. From 2000 to 2017, Lithuania’s GDP grew by 308%, showing how much the economy expanded before this recent run of success. Four years earlier GDP per capita was €20,190, a nominal rise of about 44%. High inflation in 2022 and 2023 explains part of that, though real GDP also grew in every one of those years.

Measured in purchasing power standards, which adjust for differences in price levels, Lithuania’s GDP per capita is 10–20% below the EU average. That puts Lithuania ahead of Estonia, at 79% of the average, and Latvia, at 71%. Over the last decade, that gap has narrowed as productivity and incomes have risen.

Much of the recent economic growth has come from higher-value work. Exports of IT services more than tripled in five years, and engineering accounted for almost half the increase in exports of Lithuanian-made goods. Lasers are another example, with the laser technology industry exporting over 90% of its production. Defence spending across the region is also bringing in new plants, including the Rheinmetall ammunition factory that is being built now.

Lithuania’s Labour Market

If you’re considering Lithuania as your next career destination, the job market is actually a better indicator of what to expect than raw GDP figures. Pay has been climbing fast, and there are multiple sectors where employers have been struggling to find enough qualified professionals to meet their needs.

Employment and the unemployment rate

Eurostat’s survey-based unemployment rate for Lithuania was 6.9% in 2025. The European Commission projects a slight fall to 6.7% in 2026. A second measure, registered unemployment, counts people signed up with the Employment Service and stood at 8.0% on 1 September 2026. Because it’s calculated differently, it tends to be higher than the survey rate.

For qualified professionals the picture looks quite different. Back in August 2026, the Employment Service reported 16,100 job openings, and employers looking for specialists frequently find themselves competing for the same limited pool of candidates. This is a major factor driving many of them to seek talent from overseas.

Wage growth

In Q2 2026 the average gross wage was €2,628.20 a month, which works out at €1,594.90 after tax. That’s 10.1% more than a year earlier. Private-sector pay rose by 9.6% and public-sector pay by 11.3%. Wages have grown faster than inflation, but some economists warn that such rapid pay growth could eventually hurt competitiveness.

Earnings vary a lot by field and city, with IT and finance jobs typically offering pay well above the national average. For detailed breakdowns by sector, check out our guide to the average salary in Lithuania.

Demand for highly skilled professionals

According to Elijus Čivilis, head of Invest Lithuania, the country is “no longer competing on cost” when attracting foreign investment, and he argues that deep technical talent is a key advantage for drawing capital and helping innovative companies scale. Global business services centres alone employ 26,000 specialists in 105 centres, with roughly a third of them working in tech. The fintech sector is hiring too, with 77% of companies planning to add staff in 2026.

If you’re from outside the EU, you may qualify for the EU Blue Card. Our Lithuania work permit guide covers this, as well as other routes to gain employment in Lithuania.

Labour shortages and an ageing population

At the beginning of 2025, Lithuania had a population of about 2.89 million people, but the State Data Agency predicts that this number will drop to 2.68 million by 2050. During this time, the working-age population is expected to decrease by 319,000, while the percentage of residents aged 65 and older will climb to 30.2%. These demographic challenges weigh on long term growth, and Lithuania’s labor productivity remains one-third below the OECD average. Birth rates are already hitting historic lows, with just 18,979 babies born in 2024 – marking the lowest number since 1990.

In 2024, Lithuania was home to about 217,000 internationals, with the main reason for their residence permits being work in the country. Arrivals from abroad, along with Lithuanians coming back home, helped drive the labour-force expansion seen between 2022 and 2024, but that trend is unlikely to last as the aging population grows and somewhat mitigated the natural drop in population. For these newcomers, the fact that the population is ageing means their skills are highly sought after, which boosts their leverage when it comes to negotiating pay.

Key Sectors of Lithuania’s Economy

Technology, ICT and fintech

Around 8,000 people work in Lithuania’s fintech sector, spread across 248 companies that serve about 40 million customers. E-money and payment institutions earned €622 million in 2024, close to four times what they made in 2020. Most of these firms are based in Vilnius, which also comes top for tech and finance jobs in our city guide.

Manufacturing and engineering

Manufacturing still employs a lot of people, particularly in and around Kaunas, Klaipėda and Šiauliai. Its industrial output grew by 3.6% in Q2 2026. Manufacturing FDI reached EUR 73.7 million in 2017. Engineers and technicians are needed in furniture, chemicals, lasers and electronics, and increasingly in defence production. The government has also introduced regulatory changes as part of its policy to fast-track industrial and green energy projects.

Life sciences and business services

Life sciences make up 2.6% of GDP, and the government wants that share to reach 5% by 2030. The €7 billion Bio City campus alone should create 2,000 specialist jobs. Business service centres produce about 2% of GDP, and more of their work now involves data, finance and software. The agricultural sector still contributes 3.2% of GDP and employs 6.4%, even if higher-value services and life sciences get more attention.

Foreign Investment and International Trade

By Q1 2026, the stock of foreign direct investment in Lithuania had reached €47.4 billion. For comparison, cumulative FDI in Lithuania reached EUR 14.7 billion in 2017 and equalled 35% of GDP that year. The biggest investors are the Netherlands, Germany, the United Kingdom, Sweden and Estonia. Invest Lithuania counted 31 new FDI projects in 2025, which will create 2,139 jobs, mostly in fintech, life sciences, defence and advanced manufacturing, supporting jobs and tax revenue.

Investors are drawn by the skilled workforce, the euro and access to an EU market of around 447 million consumers. Lithuania relies heavily on international trade, and in 2024 its biggest export markets were Poland (10.2%), Germany (9.7%) and the Netherlands (7.7%). As a historical benchmark, Lithuania exported €24 billion worth of goods in 2014.

Export growth is likely to slow this year because demand from trading partners has weakened. Imports, on the other hand, are rising along with domestic spending, and mineral products account for 25% of total imports. As a result, the Commission expects the current account to swing from a surplus of 1.6% of GDP in 2025 to a 0.6% deficit in 2026. Exports of knowledge-intensive services are still doing well, and their largest buyers are the United States, Germany and the Netherlands.

Lithuania vs Other Baltic Economies

Of the Baltic countries, Lithuania has by far the largest economy, roughly equal to Latvia’s and Estonia’s put together. It also grew faster than both in 2025.

Sources: Eurostat (Lithuania; GDP per capita for all three; Estonia unemployment); Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia and LSM (Latvia); Statistics Estonia (Estonia GDP and growth).

Sources: Eurostat (Lithuania; GDP per capita for all three; Estonia unemployment); Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia and LSM (Latvia); Statistics Estonia (Estonia GDP and growth).

Estonia’s GDP per capita is a little higher in euro terms, but Lithuania comes out ahead in purchasing power terms. The difference in growth has widened in 2026, with Lithuania up 4.1% year on year in Q2 compared with 2.1% for Estonia.

Unemployment rates are much the same in all three countries. Lithuania does have the biggest job market of the three, with a broader range of employers and several cities that have industries of their own.

Lithuania’s Economic Outlook

Forecasts point to steady growth over the next two years. The European Commission expects GDP growth of 3.0% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, with unemployment at 6.7%. The Bank of Lithuania sees inflation easing from 5.1% in 2026 to 3.0% in 2027.

Once the effect of the pension withdrawals wears off, household spending will grow more slowly. The Commission puts private consumption growth at 2.2% in 2027. Investment should do better, rising by 4.5% that year as interest rates stay low and public spending continues. The general government budget deficit is projected at a moderate 2.2% to 3.0% of GDP as fiscal policy supports higher defense spending alongside infrastructure investment and public health needs.

As noted before, the population keeps shrinking, and some skills are already hard to find. Exporters would also suffer if demand abroad weakened further. Energy prices are another concern, especially with Lithuania located in a geopolitically sensitive area near Russia and Belarus, while the war in Ukraine has pushed defense spending higher. The shift toward renewable energy and lower energy dependence is ongoing.

On the positive side, companies are taking up new technologies quickly. More than half of business services centres already use generative AI, and 89% of them train their staff in AI. As life sciences, fintech and engineering grow, productivity and salaries should keep rising with them.

What Lithuania’s Economy Means for Your Career

Taken together, these figures show a country that needs more skilled people than it is currently able to train locally. Wages are going up by around 10% a year, and the fastest-growing sectors tend to pay the most. Employers are also used to hiring from abroad. If you’re an engineer, developer, finance specialist or scientist, Lithuania is a serious option for a long-term career in the European Union.

Thinking about a move? Start with the latest salary data, look at your work permit options, and compare the best cities to live and work in.

FAQs

Is Lithuania doing well economically?

By the vast majority of measures, yes. GDP was 4.1% higher in Q2 2026 than a year earlier, far above the EU average, and real wages are growing. The main concern is inflation, which was 5.6% in August 2026.

What is the main source of income in Lithuania?

Most of Lithuania’s income comes from services such as trade, transport and logistics, finance and ICT. Manufacturing is the other big contributor, and both depend heavily on exports.

What is the average salary in Lithuania?

In Q2 2026 the average gross wage was €2,628.20 a month, or €1,594.90 net. Our salary guide breaks this down by sector.

What is Lithuania’s GDP?

In 2025 Lithuania’s GDP was €84.3 billion at current prices.

What is Lithuania’s GDP per capita?

It was €29,170 in 2025.

What are the biggest industries in Lithuania?

Manufacturing, trade, transport and logistics, and construction are the largest by size. Among high-value sectors, fintech, business services, ICT and life sciences are growing fastest.

What is Lithuania’s unemployment rate?

Eurostat’s survey-based rate was 6.9% in 2025. Registered unemployment, which is measured differently, was 8.0% in September 2026.

What drives Lithuania’s economic growth?

This year the main driver is household consumption, helped by rising wages and pension fund withdrawals, with investment in second place. Longer term, long-term growth is also driven by productivity gains in higher-value industries like fintech, engineering and life sciences and by businesses investing in technology. Addressing demographic challenges will be important to sustain that growth.